Tsonga played only one match in 2020,
in Doha, and skipped this last week for preparation for Australia Open.
At 34 years old, Tsonga seems to me on a downfall of his career, and
despite still being 33 I predict some difficulties for the French to be able to get back in a Top25 with so many good young players right now.
Tsonga will probably trust his serve to get a win tomorrow,
but he shouldn't be ready to deep rallies along the way, so I think he should drop at least one set and wouldn't even be surprised if he even would lose the match.
In conclusion, if Popyrin puts some pressure in Tsonga serve and is able to make some deeper rallies,
I think the more adjusted Australian will be able to fight for the match and even if he ends up losing it he should cover the 3 game handicap.